2010 Predictions

Happy Thanksgiving, here is a some thoughts from one of many real estate experts:

"1. The residential housing market will dip again in mid-2010 before settling into a recovery in the back half of the year.

Photo: Jeff Turner

The end of government programs that have been artificially buoying housing (home buyer tax credit and Fed's Fannie Freddie mortgage purchase program) will result in a slowdown in demand right at the height of the Spring season. Rising foreclosures will also push more inventory onto the market, putting additional downward pressure on home prices.

2. Foreclosure inventory will be a lot higher than some predict.

Shadow inventory should be seen not just as homes the banks are holding on to or that are still in the foreclosure process, but homes where borrowers have stopped making payments and have not heard from the banks.

3.  No more historic lows on the 30-year fixed.

Unless the government decides to extend its Fannie-Freddie purchase program or do something else to juice the credit markets, mortgage rates will rise steadily, probably leveling off somewhere around 6 percent.

4.  Commercial real estate will continue to suffer the ills of low vacancy rates, low rents and high default rates.

The biggest concern is credit, as billions of dollars in commercial debt come up for refinance with little to no takers."

I'm still sticking strong with the Ski Town Realty market predictions available in the seller and buyer tabs of my web site. www.SkiTownRealty.NET. Cheers.